基于改进灰色模型的管壁蜡沉积厚度预测研究

为对含蜡原油管道中的蜡沉积厚度进行准确预测,在函数cot(x2)变换的基础上,结合平移变换思想,利用cot(x2+c)变换建立新的改进GM(1,1)模型。以现场管道结蜡数据和室内环道结蜡数据为例,对比改进GM(1,1)模型、基于函数cot(x2)变换建立的GM(1,1)模型及传统GM(1,1)模型之间的预测精度,并分析平移量c对改进GM(1,1)模型预测精度的影响。结果表明:改进GM(1,1)模型的预测精度最高,其次是基于函数cot(x2)变换建立的GM(1,1)模型,而传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度最低;随着平移量的增大,改进GM(1,1)模型的平均相对预测误差呈现出先减小后增大的趋势,因此合理的平移量有助于模型精度的提高。应用改进GM(1,1)模型来预测管道蜡沉积厚度是可行的,该方法可为含蜡原油管道蜡沉积厚度的准确预测提供参考和借鉴。     

Urbanization in China Based on International Comparison: A Discussion with Two Prevalent Views

Abstract>

Two prevalent views are reviewed on China’s urbanization firstly. Then, this article highlights the characteristics and pattern of urbanization in the world based on the quadrants map, using data of 118 countries or areas. The results indicate that the process of urbanization in the world excluding the data of China has slowed down gradually. A further exploration examines China’s urbanization process and economic development over time, which reveals that both urbanization level and the level of economic development belong to the low-grade coordination pattern. The low level of urbanization is closely connected with the low level of economic development. Actually, China’s urbanization gap appeared during 1985–1995, but it has been eliminating this urbanization gap since 1995 as a result of rapid urbanization growing. The complicated realities revealed in this analysis challenge the existing two prevalent views.     

Integrating ecosystem services evaluation and landscape pattern analysis into urban planning based on scenario prediction and regression model

ABSTRACT

Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including (1) analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics; (2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model (SLEUTH-3r model); and (3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation, model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.     

新疆大气自动监测系统数据与同期隔日报数据对比及影响分析

全区19个城市大气自动监测系统于2005年1月正式开始运行,本文对系统的运行情况进行了简述,并对空气质量日报数据和同期的隔日报数据进行对比分析,对采用自动监测系统后空气污染指数的变化以及对环境管理决策产生的影响进行了讨论.     

区域大型环境空气综合观测中外场观测与实验室分析数据质量控制研究

环境监测的质量保证是监测数据准确性、可比性的重要保障.在区域大气联合观测项目中,完善的质量保证体系应包括管理机制和技术措施两部分,但目前我国对这类项目质量保证尚无统一标准.针对大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目（简称"大气攻关项目"）外场观测任务量大、承担单位多、监测项目复杂的特点,为保证观测数据的质量,避免出现由于监测和质控方法不统一造成的数据可比性差、结果矛盾的问题,提出了大气攻关项目质量保证体系和管理机制.其中,质量保证体系包括制定总体要求（技术文件、监测项目及质控要求）、外场观测质量保证（内部质量管理体系、项目外场观测质量保证体系）、实验室分析质量保证（实验室遴选、项目实验室分析多级质量保证体系、实验室比对和飞行检查）和数据质量控制（数据线上审核、项目实验室分析质控报告、项目数据质量评价）4个方面.管理机制为项目管理办公室、质控实验室和承担单位三级主体,两级监督的分级管理模式.通过项目实践,项目质量保证体系达到了保证观测数据准确性、可比性的预期效果,为揭示区域雾霾形成机理、突破污染控制关键技术提供了有力的技术支持,同时为区域大气联合观测项目的数据质量保证提供了借鉴.      

论舰船设备的湿热试验

湿热环境是海军舰船设备所需承受的重要环境条件之一。论述了湿热试验目的、物理现象。针对海军舰船设备以往采用的几种湿热试验方法存在的严酷度差异,着重对GB2423-81《电工电子产品基本环境试验规程试验Db：交变湿热试验》、GIB150．9-86《军用设备环境试验方法湿热试验》、IB839-75《电工产品湿热试验》和《实船环境试验条件》的试验严酷度进行了验证比对并得出结论。     

Examining the interpersonal process and consequence of leader–member exchange comparison: The role of procedural justice climate

Individuals are always sensitive to their relative standing in interpersonal comparison processes of leader–member exchanges (LMXs) in teams. Little research, however, has investigated whether coworkers with a higher LMX influence the emotional and behavioral reactions of individuals with a lower LMX in different dyads. Drawing on social comparison theory and the symbolic model of procedural justice (PJ) climate, we conducted 2 independent studies—an experimental study focusing on the self‐perceived upward LMX comparison (i.e., an individual perceives that a coworker's LMX is higher than the LMX that he or she has with the supervisor; N = 203; Study 1: American working adults) and a field survey study focusing on the other‐perceived downward LMX comparison (i.e., a coworker perceives that his or her own LMX is higher than the LMX that the individual has with the supervisor; N = 177; Study 2: Chinese software engineers). Results from these studies consistently revealed that a coworker's higher LMX elicits an individual's hostile emotions when the PJ climate is low but that this relationship is buffered when the PJ climate is high. Results of both studies also showed that the coworker's higher LMX arouses the individual to direct harmful behavior toward that coworker (via the individual's feelings of hostility) when the PJ climate is low but not when it is high.     

铵盐气溶胶对烟气排放连续监测系统颗粒物比对监测的影响研究

利用拉曼光谱对采样后的滤筒进行分析,发现废气中的硫酸铵-硫酸氢铵气溶胶是造成成都市部分企业烟气排放连续监测系统(CEMS)颗粒物比对监测结果不合格的主要原因。通过比较分析得出:在对含硫酸铵-硫酸氢铵气溶胶废气进行颗粒物浓度比对监测时,参比方法(重量法)测定的颗粒物浓度是一定标干采样体积下废气中固体微粒和硫酸铵-硫酸氢铵液体微粒结晶后产生的晶体的总质量,基于光散射法的CEMS颗粒物浓度测试系统测定的颗粒物浓度只是一定标干采样体积下废气中固体微粒的质量,由此导致参比方法测出的颗粒物浓度远大于CEMS测出的浓度,造成比对误差远超出允许值范围。     

非点源污染负荷模型的比较与选择

随着点源污染治理的深入,非点源污染的严重性日益凸显。对非点源污染进行定量化和有效控制的方法是通过非点源污染负荷模型对各类非点源的形成、迁移转化以及负荷量进行模拟。然而,非点源污染模型大都由发达国家开发,而且结构和参数各不相同,如何在实际应用中选择适合的模型成为非点源污染模拟的重要问题。文章选择国内常用的SWAT、HSPF、AnnAGNPS和GWLF 4个非点源污染模型,从结构、输入输出以及所应用的流域来对模型进行比较,最后给出非点源污染模型在国内使用时,模型选择的原则和建议。     

国内外冶金行业安全标准对比研究与分析

本文重点介绍了《国内外冶金行业安全标准对比研究》项目开展的基本情况,阐述了我国与欧美国家冶金行业安全标准体系和相关专业安全标准条款的对比内容,分析了我国冶金行业安全标准同欧美发达国家之间存在的差距与不足,有针对性地提出了我国冶金行业安全标准实现与国际发达国家接轨的对策措施和工作方向。